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Published: Oct 21, 2009 02:00 AM
Modified: Oct 21, 2009 05:02 PM

Turnout key in District A runoff
Bush, Robinson prep for Round 2
Lori Bush, left, and Jennifer Robinson, right.
 
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CARY - Only 11 percent of registered voters cast ballots in Wake County's closest contest on Oct. 6.

And if history is any indicator, even fewer voters will determine who wins the Nov. 3 runoff for Cary's District A.

"Voter turnout is generally lower in a runoff election," said Cheri Poucher, director of the Wake County Board of Elections. "It can go way down into the single digits."

Such a steep decline could have significant implications for Republican incumbent Jennifer Robinson and Democratic challenger Lori Bush.

If enough Bush supporters turn out, Robinson's decade-long political career could come to a halt. And a Bush victory would tilt the Town Council to the left in a town that is right down the middle.

Although municipal elections in Cary are officially nonpartisan, a runoff win for Bush would put the Town Council at 5-2 in favor of Democrats.

As of Oct. 2, the GOP held a small majority in Cary with 28,713 registered voters in the town. Unaffiliated voters took second place with 28,187. Democrats followed with 27,912 voters.

The District A race indicates just how close things are.

A slim majority of votes --50.03 percent -- were cast by voters in Wake and Chatham counties for the three Democratic candidates who sought to unseat Robinson in the first election. Bush captured 42.3 percent of the votes. While she trailed Robinson by a good margin, her campaign was organized about getting voters to the polls.

The question now: Will she be able to get people to go back?

"It's absolutely about getting people to keep excited about an election four weeks later and hoping that they come out and vote for you," Bush said.

Bush's success is largely attributed to the backing of slow growth group DavisandHighHouse.org. The organization, which Robinson called a "liberal fringe group," has been credited with helping Mayor Harold Weinbrecht unseat Ernie McAlister in 2007.

And while the group rallied Bush voters to the polls, its impact was strongest in the precinct that includes the intersection from which it gets its rallying cry and domain name.

Bush won that precinct and tied Robinson in two others. Robinson, meanwhile, won all the others in the district, the town's biggest, which is almost evenly divided between registered Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

Robinson was likely boosted by conservative voters, who turned out on Oct. 6 largely because of the Wake County school board races.

"The school board races probably got some people out to vote that wouldn't have otherwise if it was just a Cary municipal election on the ballot," said Steve Greene, a political science professor at N.C. State University. "It's probably also safe to assume that those who opposed the diversity policy in the schools supported Robinson and that their numbers will probably drop off for this runoff vote."

The candidates dismissed that theory.

Robinson said that she witnessed firsthand on Election Day how frustration over school board policies spilled across party lines. "The dissatisfaction with the school system has definitely grown into both parties," she said. And she doesn't expect an imbalance between Republicans and Democrats in the runoff. Neither does Bush.

"My belief is that if people were that concerned about the negative effects of growth, I'm hoping they'll be just as concerned about the cause," Bush added.

Robinson and Bush say they'll focus much of the efforts in the coming weeks on establishing the clear differences in their campaigns. They were to have their first, and perhaps only, opportunity to face off on the issues in this second leg of the campaign on Tuesday, when the town of Cary scheduled a debate.

Both women said they would spend time shoring up support among their prospective constituents.

Robinson, meanwhile, said she would also continue efforts to "dispel the myths and lies" leveled against her by Bush and her supporters, particularly concerning her stance on growth. She added a section to her campaign Web site that is "solely dedicated to providing a rebuttal to the half-truths Lori and her supporters have put out there."

jordan.cooke@nando.com or 919-460-2609
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