A small Morrisville company has an audacious goal: revamping the nation's weather technology.
AirDat contends that the weather sensor it developed and has installed on more than 200 airplanes provides more detailed, more timely data from the atmosphere than the weather balloons that the National Weather Service relies on for much of its information.
Jonathan Blaes, senior operations officer for the National Weather Service in Raleigh, said the data the agency's meteorologists receive from AirDat helps them make more accurate forecasts - especially for critical weather events such as thunderstorms or projecting if and when rain will turn to snow.
"We're big advocates for it," Blaes said. "We wish we had more."
Supplying more information to the government is AirDat's goal as well. But founder and CEO Jay Ladd said efforts to persuade the U.S. government to expand its purchase of AirDat's weather data - especially for aviation - have been stymied by the federal budget crunch and bureaucratic turf battles.Over the past four years the parent of the National Weather Service, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has spent as much as $3.5 million a year on the company's data, Ladd said. But last year it limited its purchase to $1 million.
"As the budget crisis worsens, the numbers get smaller," Ladd said. "We have customers in the government who want to increase their funding to us without having the funds to do it."
Rick Ferguson, AirDat's senior vice president of operations, said he'd like to think that the series of deadly tornadoes and floods that have plagued the nation recently would encourage the federal government to buy more data to improve its forecasts. But he's not confident that will happen.
Although government scientists love AirDat's data and want more of it, he said, others in government "are not thrilled by having their data supplied by a private company."
Ladd estimates that if the government spent as much on AirDat data as it does on weather balloons, the government would have at least six times as much weather information at its disposal. AirDat charges the government $50 per sounding - that is, data obtained during a plane's ascent or descent. By contrast, Ladd estimates that it costs the government $300 every time it launches an air balloon, not counting the ground-based infrastructure the program requires.
Frustrated by its inability to gain more traction with the federal government, AirDat, which has spent "many millions" developing and deploying its sensors, is focusing on furnishing forecasts to weather-sensitive businesses. It also is vying to supply data to foreign meteorological agencies.
"We're in discussions ... with the Mexican government," Ladd said. The company has nearly 40 workers split between Morrisville and Colorado.
Selling its servicesAirDat already is supplying forecasts to a large, unidentified utility that uses them to match power supply and demand. Among its other business customers is a large wind farm, which can charge at least twice as much for the electricity it supplies if it can guarantee the amount of electricity a day in advance.
Expanding its efforts in the commercial arena always has been the company's long-term plan, but up to now AirDat hasn't had the sales force to do it. The company recently hired executives to head its sales and business development efforts and will be hiring two salespeople.
AirDat doesn't disclose its revenue. Ladd said the company has generated millions of dollars in sales annually in recent years.
In addition to its contract with NOAA and its work for businesses, AirDat has some small Department of Defense research and development contracts and is a subcontractor to GE Aviation on a Federal Aviation Administration contract.
Beyond balloonsIn 2003 Ladd, the former president of Durham sports trading card company SkyBox International, led a group of investors who purchased the assets of a South Dakota company, Optical Detection Systems. The sensors Optical Detection was developing formed the technology foundation of AirDat.
Currently, much of the government's weather data comes from weather balloons that are launched twice a day from 69 locations. That data is collected on a two-hour delay.
"It's a good system, but it's an old system," Ladd said.
AirDat's Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting sensor, or TAMDAR, provides all the data that weather balloons do - such as atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity - and some that weather balloons typically don't: turbulence, icing and precise location. In addition, AirDat'sdata is delivered in real time and comes from 2,000 takeoffs and landings daily.
A multiyear NOAA study found that AirDat data could reduce errors in temperature forecasts by 15 percent to 50 percent; reduce errors in wind forecasts by up to 15 percent; and reduce errors in relative humidity forecasts by up to 35 percent.
AirDat built its sensor to withstand extremes of heat and cold as well as blasts of de-icer. It also obtained FAA certification for the sensors and developed a forecasting model to make use of the extra data TAMDAR supplies. Then it persuaded regional airlines to allow installation of the device in exchange for access to a satellite voice communication system and key operating data, such as when a plane exits the gate and takes off from the runway.
AirDat retains ownership of the sensors. It works with regional airlines because their aircraft have the most ascents and descents, which provide the most valuable information because readings come from various altitudes.
Drawn by aviationFrom the outset Ladd, a recreational pilot, was intrigued by the prospect of improving forecasts for the aviation industry.
"Today, 70 percent of air traffic delays are caused by weather," he said. "The FAA's number is, the economic impact of adverse weather is $41 billion a year."
Better forecasts, he said, would enable airlines to reroute planes in advance, avoid extended holding patterns that eat up fuel and make better decisions on when to de-ice planes, which is "very expensive." Then there's the safety factor.
"We're producing solutions today that can mitigate risk and can save lives," he said. "In aviation, you're usually not talking about one life, you're talking about a planeful of lives."